Constellation Energy reports third-quarter results on Monday, 9 November, after a month in which its shares fell 17% despite a run of positive news on nuclear power deals and federal financing. The company is scheduled to discuss the results on a conference call at 9am Eastern Time, according to its official investor calendar.

The shares closed on Friday, 6 November, at $249.95. Analysts' consensus price target has held near $339 through this month's sell-off, about 36% above that close, and the stock traded at 21 times forward earnings at the 2 November close, well below its three-year average of 26 times.

Guidance is the number to watch

Management has said it will revisit its 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $11.50 to $12.50 per share when it reports. Analysts' normalised earnings per share estimate for the quarter is already $12.21, above the $12 midpoint of that range, so investors will be watching closely for any change to the full-year outlook.

Analysts expect normalised earnings per share to climb from $9.39 in 2025 to $16.80 in 2028, but the step up to 2028 depends on new contracts being signed. Only about 30% of the company's clean baseload output was under long-term contracts in August, before the Amazon and Google deals, and management has said each gigawatt of nuclear output it contracts adds $0.40 to $1.00 to base earnings per share.

Good news that did not lift the shares

The past month brought two of the biggest announcements in the company's recent history. On 6 October, Constellation signed a 3,590 megawatt power package with Google in the PJM grid region, a 20-year deal covering 890 megawatts of new nuclear capacity from plant uprates plus 15 years of supply from the existing fleet. The shares jumped 12% that day.

On 27 October, the company landed a conditional loan commitment of up to $5 billion from the United States Department of Energy to support uprates at eight existing nuclear facilities, subject to due diligence and definitive financing documents. The Google and Amazon agreements together support more than $7 billion of investment aimed at adding approximately 1,080 megawatts of nuclear capacity. Constellation's fleet has 55 gigawatts of generating capacity across nuclear, natural gas, oil, geothermal, hydro, wind and solar facilities.

Investors sold the stock anyway, along with other shares tied to the artificial intelligence power build-out. Vistra fell 22% and GE Vernova fell 25% over the same stretch, even after GE Vernova raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $46.5 billion to $47.5 billion on 28 October. Constellation fell 6.7% the day after the 3 November midterm elections, in which Democrats won both chambers of Congress.

Dresden inspection also in focus

Monday's call is also expected to bring an update on the Dresden nuclear plant in Illinois, where the Nuclear Regulatory Commission opened a special inspection on 14 October after a corroded battery connection broke during maintenance. The long-term deals already signed with Google and Amazon run for 15 to 20 years and are not changed by an election result, so the risk for investors sits in the next round of deals rather than the ones already agreed.

If Monday's report brings a lower guidance midpoint and no new signings, the path to $16.80 of earnings per share in 2028 becomes much harder to trust. If it brings fresh contracts and a steady outlook, the case that the market has sold the shares like a data-centre bet rather than a contracted power business will be stronger. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.