The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) now expects Brent crude to average about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 above its previous estimate, according to its November Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday, 10 November 2026. The agency also raised its full-year 2026 Brent forecast to about $98 a barrel and its 2027 forecast to $84 a barrel, $10 higher than previously estimated.

The EIA attributed the revision to falling global inventories, exceptionally limited diesel supplies and continued disruptions to oil flows linked to the Iran war. US retail diesel prices hit record highs last month, and the agency expects them to stay elevated before easing to an average of roughly $4.50 a gallon in 2027.

Pipeline attacks keep supply tight

The EIA said attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline highlight the risk that further disruption could push prices higher. Saudi Arabia has restarted shipments through the pipeline following Houthi attacks, helping Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recover to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September.

The agency expects crude production shut-ins to fall from 4.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2.7 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2027. It also forecasts record US crude output of 14.3 million barrels a day in 2027, up from 13.9 million barrels a day in 2026.

What it means for the oil market

The higher forecast stands in contrast to the recent slide in spot prices. Brent has fallen sharply this month as traders priced out the risk of fresh US strikes on Iran, dropping below $90 a barrel for the first time since August. The EIA's outlook assumes most Middle East production outside Iran returns to pre-conflict averages by the middle of next year, and that depleted global inventories rebuild through 2027, gradually pulling prices lower.

The outlook was finalised on 5 November, so it does not specifically account for market events after that day. A forecast is the agency's central estimate, not a promise, and the EIA revises it every month as new data arrives.

Mira Business FM: EIA raises 2026 Brent forecast to $98 as Iran war curbs oil flows

Stock Market Watch: EIA and USDA release critical November forecasts