EU plans 15-year safeguards for new members as Montenegro nears
The European Union is drawing up strict new safeguard clauses for future member states, including a possible suspension of voting rights, with Montenegro expected to be the first country to face the new rules as it nears the end of its accession negotiations.
The European Commission tabled draft legal provisions in early October as part of a broader strategy to prepare the Union for its next enlargement. Ambassadors of the member states held their first official discussion of the package in the Committee of Permanent Representatives on 28 October, and technical work is continuing, with a further discussion expected during November.
What the new safeguards would do
At the heart of the package is a new institutional safeguard clause. It would allow the EU to act against a new member state that is in serious breach of the bloc's fundamental values, as set out in Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union, or of the principle of sincere cooperation. In the gravest cases, the measures could include the temporary suspension of voting rights in the Council.
The Commission has proposed that the probationary framework last for up to 15 years after accession, a period that has already divided national capitals. Under the draft, a new member would have at least two weeks to submit its observations once a clause is activated. The clause could also be activated before accession, with the measures adopted entering into force on the date of membership.
The package also revisits the three existing sectoral safeguards used in previous enlargements, covering the economy, the internal market and the area of freedom, security and justice. The Commission proposes extending the period during which these safeguards may apply beyond the usual three years, with member states able to approve further extensions by qualified majority.
Accession to the Schengen area would carry explicit conditions on the rule of law, anti-corruption efforts, the fight against organised crime and the functioning of the justice system. A general monitoring clause would cover the period between the signing of the accession treaty and actual membership, giving Brussels a formal tool to track a candidate's progress right up to the day it joins.
Why Brussels wants the change
The aim, according to the Commission's proposal, is to prevent a situation in which a newly admitted state stops complying with EU law or blocks Union decisions, leaving Brussels without a rapid means of response. Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union already provides for sanctions, including the suspension of certain membership rights, where a serious breach of European values is established, but that procedure is slow, political and has never been carried through to its conclusion.
The proposed safeguards are intended as an additional instrument specifically applicable to newly admitted members, and one that can be triggered more quickly.
Montenegro first in line
Montenegro is the most advanced candidate in the accession process and is expected to become the first country to have the new measures incorporated into its EU accession treaty. The country began accession negotiations in June 2012, and according to the European Commission's enlargement records, all 33 screened negotiating chapters have been opened and 16 provisionally closed.
The Commission's annual enlargement report reiterated its hope that Montenegro will conclude accession negotiations by the end of the year, with the accession treaty signed in June 2027. The EU's ambassador to Montenegro, Johan Sattler, has said the Commission is recommending that member states close chapters 23 and 24, which cover the rule of law. The report held out the prospect of Montenegro becoming the EU's 28th member in 2028.
The Commission has highlighted constitutional amendments that strengthened the independence of Montenegro's Judicial and Prosecutorial Councils, a zero-tolerance policy on attacks against journalists, and the alignment of its visa policy with the EU.
Capitals divided
Not all member states are convinced. Denmark has agreed with the safeguard proposals, while Belgium and Finland have also spoken positively about the measures. Greece and Spain, by contrast, have voiced opposition to the new tool, and others are uneasy about the length of the proposed 15-year probation period.
The debate matters beyond Montenegro: Albania, Moldova and Ukraine are the only other countries with Commission roadmaps for completing negotiations. Talks on the precise wording will continue at technical level, with ambassadors expected to revisit the matter this month.
For Montenegro, the safeguards are the price of being first: even after it joins, its membership rights could be curtailed if it backslides on the rule of law or on the values it signed up to. Supporters say that is the point — enlargement can only work if the Union can be sure new members will stay on the path they promised to follow.
