A new analysis of the leaked draft declaration for the EU-UK summit on 20 November puts the cost of the Brexit reset at £17.6 billion in 2027, rising to £20.5 billion a year by the 2030s, with a further £12 billion in one-off compliance costs.

The figures come from economist Catherine McBride, writing for Briefings for Britain, who has examined the draft joint declaration due to be agreed when Prime Minister Andy Burnham meets European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa in Brussels. They are her estimates, not official government costings, and no official figure has been published.

According to the analysis, the bill includes £810 million a year from 2028 for the UK to rejoin the Erasmus+ student exchange programme, and a contribution to the EU's Cohesion Fund as the price of rejoining the EU electricity market. The draft also opens the way for unlimited numbers of EU students to study at UK universities at the same capped fee paid by British students.

A separate assessment by The Growth Commission, published on 4 November, disputes the government's claim that the reset will add 0.4 per cent to GDP, estimating instead a net long-run loss of £73 billion once the costs it says were left out are counted. The draft declaration itself is not yet final, and reporting on it has noted that no sum has yet been set for the financial contribution, with talks expected to continue beyond the summit.