European natural gas held near €87 per megawatt hour on Monday 9 November, about 16 percent below last week's four-year highs, as easing fears of new United States strikes on Iran pulled the war premium out of energy markets.

The Dutch TTF benchmark, Europe's main gas price reference, was quoted at about €86 to €87 per MWh on Monday morning, after falling 2.96 percent to €88 per MWh. A week earlier it had traded above €101.82. Oil moved the same way: Brent crude fell to $97.67 a barrel after President Donald Trump said fresh strikes on Iran were highly unlikely while talks to end the conflict made progress.

Storage draws quicken

Colder temperatures are now drawing down Europe's gas stores. European Union storage fell from 74.56 percent to 73.75 percent full in just three days, equivalent to 835.1 terawatt hours, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. Stocks in Germany fell from 61.05 percent to 60.25 percent, or 149.02 terawatt hours, while Italy, the fullest store in Europe, slipped from 91 percent to 90.08 percent, or 183.24 terawatt hours.

Asia pays more, America pays far less

The gap between world gas prices remains wide. Asian liquefied natural gas was trading at $32 per million British thermal units, while US natural gas futures were near $2.94 per million British thermal units, roughly one-tenth of the European price. US storage stood at 3,801 billion cubic feet after a 77 billion cubic feet weekly injection.

Traders will watch winter demand, the pace of storage withdrawals and the course of the US-Iran talks. With the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted and shipping under threat, the war premium could return quickly if diplomacy stalls.