Traders now put about a 77% chance on a Federal Reserve rate rise in December, after a much stronger than expected October jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, more than double the roughly 65,000 economists had forecast, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%. The odds rose about 10 percentage points in a day, according to CME FedWatch data, and earlier months were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs.

Yields climb as officials sound hawkish

Treasury yields rose on the data, with the benchmark 10-year note up four basis points to 4.88% and the policy-sensitive two-year yield at about 4.52%. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on 28 October, after raising it in September, and two officials already voted for a hike at that meeting. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said monetary policy would need to become restrictive to bring inflation back to the 2% target, while Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said inflation was too high and not falling. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC on Friday that further rate rises were likely.

What comes next

The decision, at the Fed's 8–9 December meeting, now hinges on the data still to come. October consumer price figures are due on Tuesday 10 November, and the November jobs report lands on 4 December. The case for tightening is not clear-cut: annual wage growth stood at 3.1%, below inflation for a seventh consecutive month, and the Fed's preferred price gauge was up 3.6% on the year in September. For now, though, markets are betting that a strong labour market keeps the Fed on a tightening path.

[Source: Invezz](https://invezz.com/news/2026/11/06/fed-rate-hike-odds-jump-after-october-jobs-report-as-officials-signal-more-tightening/) | [Source: HedgeWeekly](https://hedgeweekly.com/news/2026-11-06-fed-december-hike-odds-77pct-after-jobs-report)