Gold held below $4,000 an ounce on Thursday 12 November, falling for a third straight day as hot US inflation data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials strengthened bets on further interest-rate rises.

Spot gold was down 0.4% at $3,971.04 an ounce in afternoon trading in Singapore, while silver fell 0.8% to $51.28, Moneyweb reported. Bullion had briefly recovered above $4,000 on Wednesday before fading again.

Hot inflation lifts hike bets

October US consumer prices rose 0.4% month on month, above the 0.3% forecast, while core inflation held firm at 0.3%. Traders are now fully pricing in a quarter-point Fed rate rise in December, with some seeing a chance of a half-point move.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller has indicated a 50-basis-point rise in December may be necessary, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan backed at least two further quarter-point increases to tackle persistent inflation. Markets put the probability of a December rise at about 91%, with further increases in January and possibly April also priced in.

Strong dollar weighs on bullion

The dollar has climbed to its highest since April 2025, with the dollar index near 102.90, making gold more expensive for buyers in other currencies. Yields on two-year US Treasury notes, which are sensitive to near-term rate policy, have risen 25 basis points so far this week.

Gold fell about 3% on Tuesday after the inflation figures, before bargain hunting lifted it 0.3% to $4,042.71 on Wednesday. Traders now await US producer price data due on Friday and comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr later on Thursday for further clues on the December decision.