The COP31 climate summit opened in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday 9 November, with representatives from nearly 200 countries gathering for two weeks of talks as the Gulf war strains the region's climate pledges.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates risk falling short of their latest climate ambitions despite heavy renewable investment, analysts say. The US-Iran war has shifted attention towards protecting oil and gas exports, and Rystad Energy estimates the conflict could delay Middle Eastern renewable projects by three to 12 months, although investment in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman should recover.

What the Gulf states have pledged

The UAE has pledged to cut emissions by 47 percent below 2019 levels by 2035, to nearly 104 million tonnes, and is close to its goal of renewables and nuclear supplying 35 percent of its electricity by 2031. Oman targets cuts of up to 33 percent by 2035, measured against its actual 2024 emissions of almost 94 million tonnes. Qatar aims for measures worth 42 million tonnes of reductions by 2040, Bahrain has a 20 percent renewable-capacity goal for 2035, and Kuwait has not filed a new climate pledge.

A transitional summit

Turkey presides over COP31, which runs until 20 November, while Australia leads the negotiations. Around 60,000 people are expected, and a leaders' summit is set for 11 and 12 November. The centrepiece is an electrification drive to lift electricity's share of global final energy use from around a fifth today to 35 percent by 2035.

No landmark decision is expected at this implementation COP. The UN Environment Programme warned in October that the world is set for about 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100 on current policies. The United States is absent after President Donald Trump pulled out of the Paris Agreement.