UAE Warns of Long Uncertainty as US-Iran Deal Looks Hard

Senior Emirati official Anwar Gargash warned on Monday that the Middle East could face a prolonged period of uncertainty, saying a comprehensive political settlement between the United States and Iran to end the more than eight-month war appeared to be difficult. Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, was speaking at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate, a geopolitical conference in the UAE capital, Reuters reported.
"We should ... prepare for a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional order can be taken for granted," Gargash said in his address. He added that the UAE had opposed the US war with Iran from the outset, and said a prolonged period of regional uncertainty would require sustained diplomatic engagement by the UAE with Iran and other regional and international partners.
No breakthrough in sight, Rubio says
Gargash's warning came a day after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he did not believe a breakthrough in diplomatic efforts to end the war was imminent. Rubio, speaking on Sunday before departing Florida for a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Paris, said negotiations with Iran had made little progress. He said President Donald Trump preferred a diplomatic solution but described Iran's demands as unacceptable to Washington.
The diplomatic track runs through Doha. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Qatari mediators in New York to discuss a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera reported. Araghchi told Iranian state media on Monday that the Qatari mediators would carry the ideas discussed at the meeting to the US, and that he hoped to receive Washington's final response by Tuesday.
Tehran's proposal and Washington's red line
Iran's plan, announced on Friday at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, calls on the US to release frozen Iranian funds, lift sanctions and end its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Araghchi said those steps could be completed within four or five days, allowing the strait to reopen and negotiations on a final agreement, including on Iran's nuclear programme, to begin by the seventh day.
Trump rejected the proposal on Saturday, calling it "unacceptable". A US official said there would be no agreement to end the war unless Tehran's nuclear programme is addressed, and described the talks with the Qatari mediators as "positive and constructive".
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, which handled roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and gas supplies before the war, shortly after the US and Israel launched their offensive on 28 February. The waterway's fate, and the sequencing of any deal — sanctions relief first, or the nuclear programme first — remains the central obstacle to a settlement.
What happens next
All eyes are now on Washington's response to the Qatari-mediated ideas, expected by Tuesday, and on Trump's meeting with Qatar's prime minister at the White House on Monday. Until one side moves, Gargash's assessment stands: the region should prepare for uncertainty, not for a quick resolution.