Fresh attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have kept oil prices near $112 a barrel, even as traders weighed hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the confrontation between the United States and Iran.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy said on Sunday 1 November that two oil tankers exploded after striking mines while using what it called an unauthorised route through the strait. Iranian state media reported that one vessel, a supertanker, caught fire and that both ships were left unable to move. The force accused the tankers of switching off their navigation and identification systems and claimed they had American military support. The vessels were not named, no crew details were given, and the claim has not been independently verified.

A separate alert, and a pattern of strikes

Separately on the same day, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported an incident in the strait at about 1509 UTC, after a merchant ship's master relayed a mayday call saying another vessel had been hit by an unknown projectile. It is not clear whether that alert and the Revolutionary Guard claim describe the same vessels.

The incidents follow a run of strikes in the area. Maritime analysis firm Windward says at least four tankers were attacked in and around the strait between 29 and 30 October, including one hit by explosives fixed to its hull — the first use of limpet mines in the Gulf since at least 2019. On 30 October, the Qatari-owned liquefied natural gas carrier Al Mayeda was struck by three projectiles south of Lavan Island, according to Windward; Qatar's news agency said no crew were injured and there was no environmental damage.

Prices ease, but the risk premium stays

Brent crude had closed on Friday at $113.43 a barrel, up 2.37%, with West Texas Intermediate at $104.12, up 2.08%. In early Asian trading on Monday, Brent eased $1.51 to $111.92 and WTI fell $1.78 to $102.34, as talks mediated by Qatar continued for a third day. Shipping through the strait has not stopped — Windward counted about 24 visible transits between 30 October and the morning of 1 November, against 18 in the previous comparable period — but the repeated strikes explain why traders are not yet pricing the danger away. Sources: Reuters via KTWB and Windward maritime analysis.