IEA: No Return to Normal Energy Markets in 2027
The head of the International Energy Agency has told an industry audience in Singapore that energy markets should not be expected to return to their pre-war shape in 2027. Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, addressed Singapore International Energy Week on Monday 26 October, and urged governments and companies to make energy security their top priority.
The warning follows months of disruption since the war involving Iran began in late February. That conflict disrupted energy flows, tightened supplies and pushed crude and refined fuel prices higher, despite earlier expectations of a market surplus this year.
A warning repeated in Singapore
Birol said he does not expect energy markets in 2027 to recover their pre-Iran war conditions. The message echoes his earlier assessment that there is no credible pathway to normalisation next year, but its setting on Monday matters: it came as Brent crude had reached $117 a barrel after further Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, a level not seen for nearly six months, before retreating.
At that peak, Brent remained about 59% above its level before the war, according to reporting of Birol's Singapore remarks. Birol declined to predict oil prices at the press conference, but said crude approaching $120 a barrel was having a substantial effect on trade deficits across many countries, even though some European economies might be able to afford that level.
Why prices alone do not tell the story
Birol also pointed to pressure beyond headline crude. He highlighted concern over winter demand for refined fuels, particularly diesel used for heating in parts of the West, at a time when several refineries are undergoing maintenance.
