Iran can still produce about 50 ballistic missiles a month, roughly half its pre-war capacity, despite months of American and Israeli air strikes, according to a Western intelligence estimate reported by Bloomberg.

The assessment, cited by a Western official, also estimates that Tehran retains at least 1,700 ballistic missiles, leaving it with a formidable means of retaliation if fighting resumes. The official cautioned that the figure does not mean all of the missiles are ready for immediate use.

Before the war began on 28 February, Israel estimated Iran's stockpile at about 2,500 ballistic missiles, and Tehran was thought to be producing around 100 a month. Since then, Bloomberg Economics counts more than 4,900 Shahed-type weapons and at least 2,200 ballistic missiles fired by Iran.

Damage claims in dispute

The findings sit uneasily with claims from Washington about the scale of the damage. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that 80 per cent of Iran's industrial base had been destroyed, while President Donald Trump said on 9 November that nearly 85 per cent of its manufacturing capability had been destroyed.

The assessment does not directly contradict those claims about nuclear infrastructure, but it indicates that Iran's missile production has been degraded rather than eliminated. Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst now at King's College London, told Bloomberg that thousands of Shahed-type attack weapons may also remain in Iran's arsenal.

The estimate emerged as the Revolutionary Guards unveiled a new underground "missile city" on Tuesday, showing tunnels packed with ballistic and cruise missiles. Iran says the facilities protect production from air strikes, although the claims in the footage cannot be independently verified.