Jamaica's economy is recovering gradually after Hurricane Melissa, the strongest storm in the country's recorded history, the International Monetary Fund said on 11 November 2026. The Fund projects growth of 1.3 per cent in the 2026/27 financial year, after a contraction of 1.2 per cent in 2025/26, with output returning to its pre-hurricane level by mid-2027.

The assessment comes in the IMF's concluding statement for its 2026 Article IV mission to Jamaica, following meetings in Kingston from 27 October to 4 November. The mission was led by W. Raphael Lam, deputy division chief in the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department.

Strong frameworks cushioned the blow

The IMF said Jamaica's strong policy frameworks and sustained reforms had underpinned its resilience after the hurricane. Its disaster risk financing framework, together with the strength of its fiscal, monetary and financial sector frameworks, supported an appropriate policy response that cushioned the severe impact while preserving market access on favourable terms.

The Fund said the multi-layered disaster risk financing provided rapid liquidity, including through the IMF's Rapid Financing Instrument. Reconstruction efforts and a recovery in tourism are expected to drive the rebound in activity.

Inflation still above target

Headline inflation, largely driven by higher energy and food prices, has risen above the Bank of Jamaica's target band of 4 to 6 per cent. The IMF projects it will return within the target band by mid-2027 as supply pressures ease.

The Fund cautioned that risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside, while inflation risks remain on the upside. It said the priority now is to advance reconstruction while preserving macroeconomic stability and deepening reforms, given a more challenging external environment.

What happens next

The IMF urged the authorities to accelerate rebuilding and use it to address long-standing infrastructure gaps. It said Jamaica's new National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority offers an opportunity to build back better and strengthen protection against future disasters.

The IMF also supported the government's decision to ease fiscal policy after the disaster, including activating the fiscal rule's escape clause to assist vulnerable households and finance hurricane-related rebuilding. The Fund said the authorities' effective disaster response had helped preserve confidence and keep financing available on favourable terms.

The concluding statement reflects the preliminary findings of IMF staff. Staff will now prepare a report for the IMF Executive Board to discuss. For Jamaica, the test in the months ahead is whether reconstruction can move quickly enough to revive economic activity without reigniting inflation or derailing the country's debt-reduction path.

Read the IMF's concluding statement and CANANews' report on the IMF forecast.