Japan's core consumer inflation is expected to have risen 2.3% in October from a year earlier, staying above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a second consecutive month, according to a Reuters poll published on Friday, 13 November 2026.

The nationwide core consumer price index, which includes energy items but excludes fresh food prices, was forecast by 16 economists to have grown 2.3% year on year. That compares with a 2.1% rise in September and would be the strongest reading since last December.

Energy costs keep prices high

The poll pointed to the continuing impact of the US-Israeli war on Iran on energy costs as a factor behind the elevated reading. Data from the Bank of Japan on Thursday showed wholesale inflation re-accelerated in October as the Middle East conflict and demand linked to artificial intelligence kept pushing up prices for fuel and semiconductor chips.

The Bank of Japan held interest rates steady in October, but declared victory in hitting its price target. The internal affairs ministry will release the official consumer price data at 8:30am on Friday, 20 November.

The figures will be watched closely by markets and policymakers for signs of when the central bank may next move on rates, with inflation now running above target even as higher prices continue to squeeze households, Northland News Radio reported.