President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna are tied as Kenyans' preferred candidates for the 2027 presidential election, each with 31 per cent support in a new poll released on Thursday, 12 November.

The survey by TIFA Research asked Kenyans whom they would like to win next year's election, rather than how they intend to vote. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is third on 9 per cent, followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i on 5 per cent and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua on 4 per cent. All other opposition and possible candidates combined stand at 19 per cent, while 15 per cent were undecided.

Sifuna's rise reshapes the opposition race

Sifuna, who leads the Linda Mwananchi movement after breaking from the Orange Democratic Movement, has risen sharply from 15 per cent in TIFA's June survey. TIFA said his growth had come largely at the expense of other opposition figures rather than of Ruto, whose support stood at 24 per cent in June.

Regionally, Ruto leads in Northern Kenya with 62 per cent and in Central Rift with 59 per cent, while Sifuna is strongest in Western Kenya on 55 per cent, followed by Nairobi on 39 per cent and the Coast on 36 per cent.

What the poll does not predict

TIFA cautioned that the findings measure preference, not voting intention, and are not a forecast of the August 2027 general election. The survey ran from 26 October to 5 November, using face-to-face interviews with 2,036 adults across all 47 counties, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 percentage points.

Among Ruto supporters, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki is the preferred running mate, on 55 per cent. The findings leave the opposition's biggest question unanswered: whether its leaders can agree on a single candidate.