The head of the Metropolitan Police will warn today that policing in England and Wales is heading for failure unless it undergoes its biggest overhaul in more than half a century.

Sir Mark Rowley is due to deliver the warning in a speech in Manchester on Friday. He will argue 43 separate forces can no longer cope with modern crime.

His central proposal is to replace the 43-force model with eight to ten regional forces and a new National Police Service. It would be the biggest reorganisation since the 1960s.

Reform or decline

"I believe this is a choice between the third greatest revolution in British policing or the inevitable decline and fewer bobbies on the beat," Sir Mark will say.

He will describe the current system as a "top heavy spaghetti model" and argue a simpler three-tier structure — local teams, capable regional forces and a national service — would remove duplication that exists 43 times over, freeing thousands of roles for frontline services.

Positive outcomes nationally are now less than half what they were twelve years ago, public confidence has fallen by nine percent, and policing spending has fallen from around 0.9 percent of GDP to around 0.7 percent since 2010.

Backing the reforms

They follow Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's January consultation, which included a National Police Service and a possible merger of the 43 forces. A Home Office spokesperson said the government would deliver "the most radical reform of policing in 200 years".

Not everyone agrees merging forces is the answer: the Association of Police and Crime Commissioners has questioned whether fewer, larger forces are the best way to improve policing. Sir Mark will conclude the greatest risk is not reform, but failing to reform: "The real danger is not change. The real danger is standing still."

Sources: Metropolitan Police, Commissioner to warn policing is heading for failure without biggest overhaul in 50 years, 6 November 2026; The Times, Mark Rowley backs merging police into eight super-forces, 6 November 2026.