Russian refinery runs rebounded last week after a pause in confirmed attacks on refining infrastructure, according to analysts at JPMorgan cited in a Reuters report. The bank said there had been no further confirmed attacks since the strike on the Ryazan refinery on 15 October.

JPMorgan put the rebound at about 350,000 barrels per day, taking runs to about 4 million barrels per day. The analysts said higher runs could allow Russia to lift crude production by a broadly comparable amount, reversing part of the decline to about 8.4 million barrels per day, its lowest since 2003. They cautioned higher production would not necessarily mean higher exports.

Estimates differ on the scale of the recovery

Other estimates point higher. Three industry sources cited by Reuters put processing at about 5 million barrels per day in the second half of October, up roughly 25 per cent from early-month levels. Russia's Energy Ministry said, via Petra, that diesel production had risen to about 225,000 tonnes per day in October, with about 80,000 tonnes per day available for export, subject to quotas.

The figures are estimates from different sources and methods, not a single settled total. What the reports agree on is the direction: processing has recovered from earlier in October.

Why it matters for fuel markets

A refining recovery matters because diesel and other refined products have been tight. The Energy Information Administration reported firms pulled 1.9 million barrels of crude from storage in the week ended 23 October, against expectations for a 15,000-barrel build, while petrol stocks rose 3.9 million barrels against expectations for a 0.9 million-barrel draw. US refinery utilisation was 92.8 per cent that week, cited by MarketWatch, compared with 86.6 per cent a year earlier. A sustained recovery would ease one source of product-market pressure, but not resolve Middle East supply risks alone.

Sources: Reuters report; Morningstar / MarketWatch; Fana News / Petra.