Sea Limited reports its third-quarter results before the US market opens on Tuesday, 10 November, in a test of whether its Shopee e-commerce business can deliver the profit step-up management promised earlier this year.

The Singapore-based technology company, which runs Shopee, the Garena games business and the Monee digital financial services arm, will hold a conference call at 7:30am Eastern Time, equivalent to 8:30pm in Singapore and Hong Kong.

What analysts expect

Analysts expect Sea to post earnings of $0.97 per share on revenue of $8.08 billion for the quarter, according to MarketBeat. That would compare with $0.59 per share on revenue of $5.99 billion in the same quarter last year, growth of about 65% in earnings and 35% in revenue.

Estimates vary by data provider, with some putting expected earnings as low as $0.82 per share and revenue as high as $8.29 billion, and others expecting $1.04 per share. The spread reflects different adjustments for one-off items, so the headline comparison will matter less than the operating detail behind it.

Shopee profit is the main event

Shopee is the main event. Three months ago Sea raised Shopee's full-year adjusted earnings target to more than $1 billion and said the second half of the year would out-earn the first. Shopee's adjusted earnings returned to growth in the second quarter, rising 12% to $255 million after a 16% fall in the first quarter, so a materially larger third-quarter figure is needed to keep that target credible.

Investors will also watch Shopee's gross merchandise value, the total value of goods sold through the platform. It grew 28% to $38.3 billion in the second quarter. Management has indicated it could grow by about 25% for the full year. Advertising revenue grew by more than 70% in the second quarter, and the VIP programme passed 15 million members, including more than a million in Brazil.

Monee and Garena in focus

The Monee financial services business poses a question of quality as well as quantity. Its loan book expanded 62% to $11.1 billion in the second quarter, while the 90-day non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.0%. Investors will want to see that rapid lending growth is not coming at the cost of credit quality.

Garena, the games business, is the swing factor for sentiment. Its bookings growth has fallen from 51% to 15% over four quarters as exceptional prior-year collaborations roll off. Another step down would be expected, but a sharp drop below the mid-teens would reinforce concerns that the profit engine funding Shopee's expansion is cooling.

Strong second quarter, weak shares

The latest reported baseline is strong on revenue but mixed on profit. Second-quarter revenue reached $7.8 billion, up 48.1% year on year, and net income rose 10.6% to $458.1 million. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.70 missed the consensus forecast of $0.83, even as revenue comfortably beat expectations.

The shares closed at $77.96 on Monday, 9 November, up 2.94% on the day from $75.73 on Friday. They touched a 52-week low of $71.53 on 26 October and are down about 39% so far in 2026, according to market data. That slide is the backdrop to Tuesday's report: investors are asking whether the operating story still holds, or whether the market's fall was an early warning that management was too optimistic.

Sea has beaten the consensus earnings estimate in none of its last eight quarters on MarketBeat's measure, which adds to the pressure on this report. The results are due before the market opens, so the market's verdict will be seen in Tuesday's trading.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Share prices can fall as well as rise.