Shell and TotalEnergies reported sharply higher third-quarter profits on Thursday 29 October, their highest since 2022, and raised share buybacks as war-driven energy prices and record refining margins helped both beat expectations. Shell posted third-quarter net profit of $10.81 billion, above analysts' average estimate of $10.33 billion and almost double the $5.43 billion it earned a year earlier. TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $9.1 billion for July to September, more than double the $4.0 billion a year earlier and above an expected $8.3 billion.

Both majors beat forecasts

Refining margins nearly quadrupled for both companies compared with a year ago, reaching $42 a barrel for Shell and $33.2 a barrel for TotalEnergies. TotalEnergies' refining and chemicals division posted record net income of $3.6 billion, more than five times the level of a year ago and double the previous quarter. Shell raised its quarterly buyback to $5 billion from $3 billion, while TotalEnergies reiterated plans to buy back $2.5 billion of shares in the fourth quarter and a further $2.5 billion in the first quarter of 2027. Shell's shares gained about 3% in early trade.

Record refining margins drive the surge

Reuters linked the results to the US-Israeli war with Iran, now in its ninth month, which has disrupted global energy supplies and pushed prices higher. The same conflict has cut into Shell's output: oil and gas production fell 17% in the first nine months of 2026 from a year earlier, mainly because the conflict reduced volumes from Qatar. Production at Shell's Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar was halted in March after an attack damaged one of its two trains; repairs could take about a year. BP, Chevron and ExxonMobil are due to report on Friday.

War disruption behind the profits — and the costs

Sources: Reuters via LSE, Reuters via Devdiscourse.