South Africa's mining production fell by 10.7% year on year in September 2026, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Thursday, marking a fifth consecutive month of annual contraction for a sector that remains central to the country's economy.

The decline, reported on 12 November, was broad-based. Ten of the 12 mining divisions recorded lower production than a year earlier, with the sharpest falls concentrated in the bulk commodities that dominate South African exports.

Iron ore, coal and diamonds lead the fall

Iron ore was the largest single drag on the headline figure. Output of the steelmaking ingredient tumbled 23.7% compared with September 2025, subtracting 3.4 percentage points from overall production. Coal output fell 13.4%, contributing a further 3.3 percentage points to the decline, while platinum group metals weakened by 9.9%, taking another 2.9 percentage points off the total.

Diamond production plunged by 63.1%, although its smaller weight in the index meant it contributed 1.1 percentage points to the fall. Mineral sales at current prices also declined, dropping 4.1% year on year in September.

The September figure followed a revised 11.7% contraction in August, previously reported as 12.7%, underlining how weak the sector has been through the second half of the year.

Quarterly picture points to a drag on growth

On a seasonally adjusted basis, mining production rose 2.8% in September compared with August, offering a small monthly reprieve. But the quarterly picture was much weaker. Seasonally adjusted mining production decreased by 6.0% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the second quarter, the second consecutive quarter of decline.

Stats SA principal survey statistician Juan-Pierre Terblanche said: "The latest mining figures conclude the results for the third quarter of the year. Mining production decreased by 6% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the second quarter of 2026. This represents the second consecutive quarter of decline. Platinum Group Metals was the largest drag on growth in the third quarter, contracting by 12.5% and contributing minus 3.5 percentage points."

Economists warned that the result would weigh on the economy as a whole. Investec economist Lara Hodes said mining output was expected to detract from the third quarter's headline GDP reading, while FNB senior economist Thanda Sithole said mining output remained under significant pressure towards the end of the third quarter.

Power, rail and costs weigh on miners

Mining accounts for about 7% of South Africa's gross domestic product, and its performance feeds directly into export earnings, jobs in mining towns and government revenue from royalties and taxes.

Producers have faced a difficult 2026. High electricity tariffs, persistent rail and port inefficiencies that make it harder to move commodities to export markets, and rising input costs have all squeezed operations. The Minerals Council South Africa mining composite input cost index increased 4.9% from a year earlier in September, up from 3.7% in August, with costs in the coke and refined petroleum category jumping 32.9%.

Economists say the near-term outlook remains challenging, and that fixing electricity supply and transport logistics, improving operational efficiency and investing in mining capacity will be critical to restoring production.

Attention now turns to the October mining figures and to the third-quarter GDP release, which will show how far the mining slump has pulled back overall growth. For now, the September data confirm that one of South Africa's most important industries is still shrinking, even as prices for gold and platinum have climbed on world markets.

Source: The National | Shanghai Metals Market