South Africa's mining production fell by 10.7% year on year in September 2026, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Thursday, marking a fifth consecutive annual contraction for a sector that remains central to the country's economy.

The decline was broad-based. Ten of the 12 mining divisions recorded lower production than a year earlier, and the sharpest falls came in some of the industry's largest commodities. Iron ore output dropped 23.7% and accounted for 3.4 percentage points of the overall decline, while coal fell 13.4% and contributed 3.3 percentage points.

Platinum group metals, South Africa's best-known mining export, fell 9.9% and contributed 2.9 percentage points to the fall. Diamond production plunged 63.1%, contributing a further 1.1 percentage points. Gold output was down 7.5% on the year. The only divisions to grow were chromium ore, up 13.1%, and manganese ore, up 12.8%.

On a month-to-month basis the picture was less bleak. Seasonally adjusted mining production rose 2.8% in September compared with August, after falls of 4.8% in August and 2.1% in July. Even so, the improvement was not enough to rescue the quarter: seasonally adjusted output fell 6.0% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the second quarter, the second consecutive quarterly decline.

Stats SA also revised its August figure. The August contraction is now put at 11.7%, rather than the 12.7% first reported. Within the third quarter, platinum group metals were the largest drag, down 12.5% and contributing minus 3.5 percentage points, followed by iron ore, down 6.5%, and coal, down 3.5%.

Mineral sales also fall

Mineral sales at current prices decreased by 4.1% year on year in September. Iron ore sales fell 23.1% and contributed 2.0 percentage points to that decline, platinum group metals sales fell 7.0%, and gold sales were down 4.5%.

Economists said the figures point to a weak end to the third quarter. Thanda Sithole, senior economist at FNB and WesBank, said mining output remained under significant pressure and noted that the weakness had intensified as the quarter progressed, after a 6.9% decline in July and the revised 11.7% fall in August.

Lara Hodes, an economist at Investec, said the contraction was broad-based, with only manganese and chromium ore production rising year on year. She added that, measured on the quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis used to calculate gross domestic product, mining output fell 6.0% and is accordingly expected to detract from the third quarter's headline GDP reading.

Power, fuel and logistics weigh on the sector

Economists pointed to the same structural problems that have dogged South African mining for years. Sithole said the near-term outlook remained challenging, with weak production momentum likely to persist amid infrastructure constraints, elevated operating costs and an uncertain global environment.

Higher fuel prices, electricity tariffs and continuing rail and port inefficiencies are squeezing the sector's competitiveness and its ability to move commodities to export markets. According to the Minerals Council South Africa, electricity accounts for approximately 4.6% of total mining input costs, and Eskom's average Energy Availability Factor fell to 69.7% in September, from 71.2% in August, indicating some weakness in generation performance.

For the year to date, mining production contracted by 2.2% between January and September. Diamonds recorded the sharpest fall over that period, down 24.5%, followed by copper, down 16.9%, iron ore, down 9.9%, and coal, down 7.7%. Chromium ore and manganese ore grew by 16.7% and 12.6% respectively over the same period.

Sithole said a sustained improvement would require more than favourable commodity prices. Addressing structural constraints in electricity supply and transport logistics, alongside improving operational efficiency and investing in mining capacity, would be critical to restoring production growth, he said.