South Korea's exports are forecast to have grown at their fastest pace in more than 50 years in October, according to a Reuters poll published on Thursday, 29 October. The median estimate of nine economists put export growth at 93.2% compared with a year earlier, up from an 83.7% increase in September.

What is driving the forecast

The poll points to robust demand for semiconductors linked to artificial intelligence investment, along with higher memory chip prices. If the forecast is realised, it would mark a 17th straight month of export growth and the strongest increase since January 1974. South Korea's exports already exceeded $800 billion in the first nine months of the year, passing last year's full-year record, while chipmaker SK Hynix reported a more than seven-fold jump in quarterly profit.

Why the headline needs care

Economists in the poll cautioned that calendar effects played a significant role. October had 22 working days compared with 20 a year earlier, partly because of differences in the timing of the Chuseok holidays, which often distort South Korea's trade data in September and October. Park Chong-hoon, an economist at Standard Chartered, said the sharp increases mainly reflected calendar effects and favourable base comparisons rather than a comparable acceleration in underlying trade activity. Stephen Lee, an analyst at Meritz Securities, said higher volumes, not just higher export prices, were contributing to growth, with momentum broadening to cars and wireless communication devices.

What happens next

These are poll forecasts, not the official trade figures, which will confirm or revise the picture when published. Readers should therefore treat the 93.2% figure as an expectation, not a result. The broader question for South Korea is whether chip-led strength spreads further into domestic demand, where smaller firms and household spending have recovered more slowly.

Sources: Reuters, Reuters (Bank of Korea).