South Korea's presidential office said on Thursday that it saw little prospect of contact between the United States and North Korea around the upcoming APEC summit in China, or of Pyongyang taking part in APEC-related events.

The assessment cools persistent speculation about a possible meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the sidelines of the summit, which is due to be held in Shenzhen, China, next week.

Trump has sought to restart talks with Kim, but US and South Korean officials now see fading chances of a meeting this year. A senior South Korean presidential official said it would be difficult to say there was zero possibility of talks, but that the probability was not high. North Korea is, in particular, unlikely to attend next week's APEC summit, the official said, adding that the chances of talks between the two sides during the summit are slim.

Why a meeting looked possible

Speculation about a meeting grew because Trump has repeatedly offered to meet Kim for talks, and because the APEC summit brings a large number of leaders to the same city at the same time. Trump and Kim met three times during Trump's first term, including a summit in Singapore in 2018 and a brief meeting at the Demilitarized Zone in 2019, but talks stalled and have not resumed.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is due to attend the APEC summit in Shenzhen next week, after first attending the ASEAN summit in Manila. His national security adviser, Wi Sung-lac, confirmed the travel plans on Thursday. Lee's presence at both summits puts South Korea at the centre of the diplomacy around the gatherings, but Seoul's own assessment is that Pyongyang will stay away.

The official's remarks were made on condition of anonymity, in line with the practice for senior presidential briefings in Seoul. The message was consistent across the briefing: do not expect a breakthrough on North Korea at APEC.

Tensions along the border

The senior official also commented on a recent spike in tensions along the inter-Korean border. He said no additional North Korean activity had been detected at the Demilitarized Zone beyond preparations for possible loudspeaker broadcasts.

Kim Yo Jong, the North Korean leader's powerful sister, announced last month that her country was considering restarting propaganda broadcasts over loudspeakers near the inter-Korean border. The two Koreas have used loudspeaker broadcasts as a tool of pressure in the past, and any resumption would add to the strain between them.

South Korea says North Korean mines planted as part of its fortification activity in the Demilitarized Zone caused a blast in September that seriously wounded several of its soldiers. The incident underlined how dangerous the border area remains, even when there is no direct clash between the two sides.

Putin and the wider summit

South Korea is also monitoring whether Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the APEC summit in Shenzhen next week, given Seoul has some diplomatic issues to discuss with Moscow, the official said, without elaborating.

A possible trilateral summit involving the United States, China and Russia at the gathering could provide an opportunity for the countries to discuss North Korea, the official said. That would be a different kind of meeting from a direct encounter between Trump and Kim, and it would put North Korea on the agenda even if Pyongyang itself does not attend.

For now, the expectation in Seoul is that the APEC summit will be dominated by trade, regional cooperation and the wider US-China relationship, rather than by a breakthrough on North Korea. The chances of a meeting between Trump and Kim this year, officials say, are fading.

Sources: Reuters and Yonhap via K-VIBE.