South Korea's National Assembly has passed a bill creating a special counsel to investigate allegations that prosecutors and other state agencies under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration conducted fabricated investigations and indictments against the Democratic Party and other political opponents. The move puts the launch of a new probe within days, but it has already drawn questions about its fairness, since most of the cases on its list are tied to President Lee Jae-myung.

The National Assembly passed the bill at a plenary session on 6 November, with 167 of 168 members present voting in favour and one against, according to political sources on 8 November. Lawmakers from the People Power Party did not take part in the vote. Representative Lee Joo-young of the Reform Party voted against it. The legislation is formally titled the Act on the Appointment of a Special Prosecutor to Determine the Truth of Allegations of Fabricated Investigations and Indictments under the Yoon Suk-yeol Government.

According to political sources on 8 November, the special prosecutor law is expected to be reviewed and approved at a Cabinet meeting on 10 November. Following its enactment, the process for appointing the special prosecutor will involve requests from the National Assembly Speaker and recommendations from the president and various political parties, with appointments likely finalised by the end of this month.

Under the law, a special counsel team of up to 309 people will be assembled. The investigation runs up to 200 days, including a 20-day preparation period, and will examine allegations that state agencies carried out fabricated investigations and indictments against the then-opposition Democratic Party and other political opponents. That makes this the seventh special counsel to be launched under the current government.

The probe's targets include cases related to President Lee: alleged breach of trust in the Daejang-dong, Wirye New Town and Baekhyeon-dong development projects; alleged violations of the Public Official Election Act tied to the Daejang-dong and Baekhyeon-dong developments; the alleged solicitation of false testimony from Kim Jin-sung; the Ssangbangwool money transfer to North Korea; and the Seongnam FC sponsorship case. Also included are cases from the Moon Jae-in administration, including alleged manipulation of government statistics and the forced repatriation of North Korean fishermen.

Critics point to a potential conflict of interest, noting that President Lee will make the final appointment of the special counsel who investigates these cases. The special prosecutor will be selected from candidates recommended by the Democratic Party, the People Power Party and the Justice Party, with the president appointing one of them. The opposition has warned that the arrangement amounts to self-protection.

President Lee had asked in a September press conference that provisions allowing the special prosecutor to decide on the transfer of existing trials or the maintenance of charges be removed. The law as passed excludes clauses on cancelling charges or transferring existing cases, seen as an effort to reduce controversy over the probe being used to resolve the president's personal legal issues.

Legal experts have raised doubts about the investigation's fairness, both because courts have already ruled on some cases and because the special counsel will be appointed by President Lee, who sits at the centre of them. Cha Jin-a, a professor at Korea University Law School, said the probe's focus on cases linked to President Lee runs against the original purpose of the special counsel system, which is meant for exceptional cases where a fair investigation cannot be expected because the appointing authority would influence a probe into those in power.

For President Lee, the investigation could be an opportunity. If the special prosecutor confirms illegal or unjust investigations by the prosecution, it could provide him with a chance to overturn the judicial risks that have hindered him for an extended period, and to shift the narrative from judicial risks posed by the opposition to issues of prosecutorial abuse. Conversely, if the probe is perceived as a form of self-relief to ease the president's legal burdens, it could lead to a backlash from moderate voters and diminish his governance momentum. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said the special counsel could act as a double-edged sword for the Lee Jae-myung administration, warning that if it leads only to discussions about charge cancellations without substantial findings, it could be a fatal blow to the government.

A recent survey by Gallup Korea conducted from 3 to 5 November among 1,001 adults nationwide found that President Lee's job approval rating rose by 2 percentage points to 41 percent, while his disapproval rating stood at 50 percent. Among moderate voters, the approval rating was 42 percent. Although his approval rating has recovered to the 40 percent range, judicial issues remain a vulnerable point, and analysts suggest the investigation may extend beyond the year-end budget and personnel discussions into the first half of next year.