October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways since the conflict with Iran began, according to data compiled by a Washington-based think tank that has tracked maritime security incidents worldwide since 2017. Senior fellow Noam Raydan of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said October had seen the highest number of ship attacks on record.

The numbers behind the warning

Ms Raydan recorded 28 confirmed and reported attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways in October, and 113 since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February. The tally broadly aligns with data from the International Maritime Organization, which recorded 120 incidents in the Strait and the wider Middle East since the conflict began. More than 30 supertankers, or Very Large Crude Carriers, were listed as damaged, including 11 in October alone, a Reuters review found.

Why ships keep sailing

Each very large crude carrier can carry about two million barrels of crude, and the damaged vessels account for about 3.5 percent of a global fleet of more than 900. Reuters reported that more tankers came under attack as shipowners became increasingly willing to load cargoes inside the Gulf, attracted by high freight rates and discounts offered by regional producers. Between 5 and 11 October alone, a dozen ships were attacked, the highest weekly number since the conflict began, according to Greece-based consultancy Marisks.

Risk remains high

USNI News put the October figure at 27, a small counting difference that does not change the trend. Ms Raydan said Iran did not need to hit every ship to keep risk high.