Thailand is planning an overhaul of its rice industry after exports fell sharply this year, with shipments forecast at 6.5 million tonnes in 2026, below the Department of Foreign Trade's target of 7 million tonnes. The shortfall would mark the lowest export volume in five years for the world's one-time top rice exporter.

The department's director general, Arada Fuangtong, gave the revised forecast on 30 October. Thailand exported 4.99 million tonnes from January through September, down 19.26 percent from the same period a year earlier, while export earnings fell 16.84 percent to about $2.962 billion. Higher prices have not offset the drop in volume.

The pressure comes from the field as much as the market. Thailand's average rice yield is 2.85 tonnes per hectare, against 7.16 tonnes in China, 6.12 tonnes in Vietnam and 4.40 tonnes in India, according to figures cited by the Commerce Ministry. Thai white rice was quoted at $490 to $495 a tonne by early November, against $480 to $490 for Vietnamese rice and $389 to $393 for Indian white rice. Shipments to Iraq, once worth more than 1 million tonnes a year, fell to about 90,000 tonnes in the first nine months as Middle East conflict disrupted shipping, and Indonesia has halted Thai rice imports to support its own production.

Commerce permanent secretary Poonpong Naiyanapakorn is coordinating a food security strategy with rice as the pilot commodity, working with the budget, agriculture and industry ministries. The Agriculture Ministry has proposed a small rice Sandbox trial of about 100 rai using RD113 and RD85 varieties with precision farming, aiming at potential yields of 1.4 to 1.5 tonnes per rai against the national average of 456 kilograms. Read the full report at Asia Daily.