Thailand is aiming for at least 4 trillion baht, about $118 billion, in annual tourism revenue by 2032 under a draft national plan approved by its National Tourism Policy Committee on 30 October 2026. The target is roughly 48 per cent higher than the 2.7 trillion baht the country earned in 2025, and it covers spending by international visitors and domestic travellers alike.

The Fourth National Tourism Development Plan runs from 2028 to 2032. The committee, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Suphajee Suthumpun, also backed a goal of placing Thailand among the top 30 countries in the World Economic Forum's Travel and Tourism Development Index, which measures the conditions that support travel and tourism.

Arrivals fall as spending becomes the priority

The ambition comes at a difficult moment for the industry. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce forecasts that foreign arrivals will fall 4.5 per cent to 31.5 million in 2026, compared with nearly 33 million in 2025, marking a second consecutive annual decline. The university recorded 23.20 million international arrivals in the first nine months of 2026, down 3.8 per cent, or about 916,000 visitors, from the same period a year earlier. The pace of decline worsened through the year, with arrivals down 2.4 per cent in the first quarter, 4.4 per cent in the second and 5 per cent in the third, while September alone recorded a fall of 10.5 per cent.

Rather than chasing visitor numbers alone, the plan seeks better services, visitors who spend more, stronger safety systems and a wider distribution of tourism income among small businesses and communities. The revenue goal requires an additional 1.3 trillion baht a year compared with 2025.

China grows while other leading markets shrink

China was the only one of Thailand's five leading visitor markets to expand during the first nine months of 2026. Chinese arrivals increased 15.2 per cent to 3.94 million, according to figures presented by Wichian Kaewsombat, director of the university's Trade Strategy Institute. Arrivals from Russia slipped 0.1 per cent and those from India fell 2.5 per cent, while the reductions were much sharper for Malaysia, down 15.2 per cent, and South Korea, down 25.4 per cent.

A survey of 368 tourism operators showed that 63 per cent depended on foreign visitors for at least a quarter of their revenue. External pressures, including conflict in the Middle East, global economic conditions and higher travel costs, accounted for 48.1 per cent of responses about the decline. Operators also pointed to fewer flights, uncertainty over visa policies, border checkpoint difficulties and safety concerns. Suphajee called for action against human trafficking, scams and technology-related crime because of their effect on visitor confidence, particularly in China.

Five pillars, cruise ports and visa proposals

The draft plan groups its work into five areas: quality and value, sustainability, competitiveness, resilience, and data and cooperation. Cruise and yacht tourism are treated as high-revenue segments where Thailand lacks capacity, and the Tourism Authority of Thailand has been asked to work with other agencies on a framework for developing cruise terminals and yacht marinas. The committee also discussed building on Thailand's hosting of the 2026 IMF and World Bank annual meetings to attract travellers with greater spending power, with proposed routes connecting Bangkok with nearby provinces such as Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya.

Suvarnabhumi Airport has already expanded access to automated passport processing from two countries and territories to 33, covering nationalities that represented around 57 per cent of people entering Thailand in 2025. The airport has also staffed all immigration lanes and increased waiting space.

Visa changes are the next step. The Tourism Authority of Thailand is seeking a review of visa exemption measures for Mexico and Colombia, alongside proposals concerning Uzbekistan and Belarus. The measures are due to go before the relevant committee on 9 November 2026 and have not taken effect. Together, Mexico and Colombia sent 77,445 visitors to Thailand in 2025, generating 3.947 billion baht in tourism revenue at an average of about 50,932 baht per visitor. A proposed fee for foreign tourists also remains pending: initial public consultation was broadly positive, but approval to begin collection has not been given.

The university expects foreign arrivals to recover to 34 million in 2027, up 7.9 per cent from its 2026 forecast, with international visitor revenue of about 1.63 trillion baht. Its scenarios range from 32.57 million arrivals in the weakest case to 35.44 million in the strongest. The committee has approved a draft, with final adoption and detailed delivery arrangements still ahead.