The Trade Desk reports its third-quarter results after the market closes on Monday, 9 November, in a report that will test whether the advertising technology company can start rebuilding trust with investors after a year of steep falls. The earnings call is scheduled for 5pm Eastern Time, and analysts expect earnings of $0.0374 per share on revenue of $650.93 million.

The scale of the decline is stark. The shares ended 2024 at $117.53 and closed on Friday at $12.93, a fall of almost 89% since the end of last year. They have spent about three months trading in a narrow band of roughly $12 to $15, after dropping about 22% in a single day following the company's August forecast.

A lower bar after August's miss

That August forecast set the bar for Monday's report. Management guided to third-quarter revenue of at least $650 million, down around 12% year on year from $739 million, and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of about $160 million, roughly half the $317 million recorded in the third quarter of 2025.

The company forecasts revenue as a minimum figure, and recent results have landed close to that floor or below it. Second-quarter revenue of $715 million came in about $35 million short of the "at least $750 million" it had guided to, growing just 3% year on year, while adjusted EBITDA of $241 million also fell short of the forecast of about $260 million. The company had also missed its own floor in the fourth quarter of 2024, reporting $741 million against guidance of at least $756 million, although fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $847 million beat its floor by $7 million and first-quarter 2026 revenue of $689 million cleared it by $11 million.

Chief financial officer Nate Olmstead told investors on the second-quarter earnings call in August that guidance was meant to be grounded in the data. "In general, we don't think that guidance should really be considered conservative or aggressive. The goal really is to be credible," he said.

Existing clients spent less

The company's second-quarter filing showed that gross spend, the total advertising money clients put through its platform, rose mainly because of campaigns from new clients, partly offset by lower spending from existing clients. Video, which includes connected television advertising on streaming services watched on internet-connected televisions, was the biggest channel at a low-50s percentage share of the business in the second quarter, followed by mobile at a high-20s percentage. Connected television and audio both grew at double-digit rates, but with total revenue up only 3%, the slowdown appears to have sat in mobile, display or the rest of video.

The United States also lagged. Its share of revenue was around 83% in the second quarter, down from 86% in the same quarter of 2025, which implies United States revenue was roughly flat while international markets did almost all the growing.

What to watch on Monday

The outlook may matter more than the quarter itself. Last year's fourth quarter was the company's largest, with revenue of $847 million, up 14% from $741 million the year before. Another 12% drop would put this year's fourth-quarter floor at around $745 million, so a forecast above that level could signal the declines are easing, while one below it may mean they are still getting steeper.

Earnings could also look weaker on paper. For the four quarters through June, the company earned $0.84 per share. Monday's report replaces the third quarter of 2025, when it earned $0.23 per share, with a quarter guided at around half the adjusted EBITDA, plus severance charges of $39 million to $51 million linked to September's plan to shed about 15% of the workforce.

Analysts are cautious. Four research analysts rate the shares a buy, 26 rate them a hold and nine rate them a sell, with an average price target of $18.16 and a market capitalisation of about $6.08 billion. The Trade Desk does not need to return to growth on Monday, but it does need revenue of at least $650 million and a fourth-quarter forecast that falls by less than 12%. Without that, the step-downs may not be over. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.