Endorsement, with a split behind it

President Donald Trump has endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Israel's election on Tuesday 27 October, after weeks of hesitation, and warned that a Netanyahu defeat could affect US-Israel ties. Yet some of his closest advisers see opportunity in a different outcome, Axios reported, citing US officials: a government without Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners could prove a more cooperative partner for Washington's Middle East agenda.

Why some advisers are disillusioned

Vice President JD Vance has pointedly declined to follow the president's lead, telling reporters he was neither attacking nor endorsing Netanyahu and that the president's endorsement was what mattered. According to Axios, Vance soured on Netanyahu during the Iran war, concluding that briefings from the Israeli leader's office before the fighting began had misread the situation. Other frustrations run across the administration: Secretary of State Marco Rubio's team has pressed Israel to bolster Lebanon's government and rein in violent West Bank settlers, envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have chafed at the slow pace of Trump's Gaza plan, and envoy Tom Barrack has objected to Israel's handling of Syria.

A win-win, as one official put it

One US official described the endorsement as a win-win for Trump: if Netanyahu wins, the president can claim credit and press for concessions; if he loses, a new Israeli government would still have every incentive to cultivate good relations with Washington. As one adviser put it, Netanyahu is, for Trump, 'the devil he knows' — the only Israeli leader he has dealt with as president. With final polls putting neither bloc on course for the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, the election's outcome — and the coalition talks that follow — will test whether that reported optimism survives contact with the results.

Sources: Axios via Ya Libnan; New York Post.