The UK is on course to miss even its reduced overseas aid target by the end of 2027, according to new analysis from the Center for Global Development (CGD). On the central forecast, drawn from the Treasury's comparison of independent experts' views, planned aid spending would come in about £410 million short of the amount needed to reach 0.3% of national income, leaving it at 0.29% instead. The figures were reported by The Guardian on 26 October.

Why the gap appears

Why the gap appears. The CGD attributes the shortfall to two factors. Higher-than-expected inflation has left national income larger than assumed at the spending review, so a fixed cash sum is worth a smaller share; a 2025 FCDO budget policy change also contributed. The range runs from a £250 million shortfall, still leaving aid at 0.29%, to a £580 million shortfall at 0.28%, which the researchers describe as very plausible.

A target already lowered

A target already lowered. The 0.3% target is itself far below the 0.7% of national income promised in Labour's election manifesto. It was cut from 0.5% to 0.3% for 2027 in February 2025 to fund higher defence spending, and the CGD notes that 0.3% would be a 25-year low. Aid already fell to 0.44% of national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, a drop of £987 million, and FCDO figures released in September 2026 showed funding to least-developed and low-income countries down 6.7%, a cut of £118 million.

What happens next

What happens next. The CGD is urging ministers to add money for aid in this week's Budget. Ian Mitchell, a CGD senior fellow, argues £400 million would halve the cuts to Africa. A spokesperson for the development office said its multi-year allocations, published in March 2026, give aid programmes stability by fixing budgets in advance. These are forecasts, not final outturns.

Sources: Center for Global Development; The Guardian, via The Brief.