Shop price inflation in the UK rose to 2.1% year on year in October 2026, up from 1.4% in September and above the three-month average of 1.6%, according to figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC). The consortium said the rate was the highest in two and a half years.

Food prices push the headline rate up

Food inflation rose to 2.9%, against 2.5% in September. Fresh food inflation was unchanged at 2.6%, while ambient food inflation — covering store-cupboard goods — increased to 3.2%, up from 2.2%. Non-food inflation climbed to 1.7%, from 0.8% the previous month, close to a three-year peak, with furniture, flooring and DIY singled out as particularly affected.

Retailers warn costs are still being passed on

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said retailers had absorbed a large wave of costs over the past two years but that the dam was starting to break, pointing to higher business rates, employment costs, energy bills and packaging taxes. Ahead of the Chancellor's first Budget on 28 October, she said the message could not be clearer: act now, or prices will keep rising.

Sources: British Retail Consortium figures via The Retail Bulletin. This is a report of the BRC's monthly shop price figures, not a forecast of official consumer price inflation.