The United Kingdom is on course to miss its target for spending on international aid by an estimated £400 million by the end of 2027, according to calculations from the Center for Global Development reported on 26 October 2026. The target is 0.3% of national income, the total value of what the country produces and earns in a year. The research puts the likely outturn at 0.29% of national income, rather than the promised 0.3%.

The centre's central forecast, based on the Treasury's comparison of independent experts' views, implies aid would come in £410 million below what was anticipated. It said a shortfall of £580 million, taking spending to 0.28% of national income, was very plausible, while even its most cautious forecast still left a gap of £250 million. Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the centre, described the figures as material shortfalls in the spending power of British aid.

Why the gap has opened up

The researchers attributed much of the gap to two factors. Higher-than-expected inflation has pushed national income above the level assumed when spending plans were set, so a fixed cash amount is worth a smaller share of income. A 2025 policy change affecting the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office budget also contributed. The 0.3% target would already be a 25-year low, well below the 0.7% promised in Labour's election manifesto before it was lowered to fund higher defence spending.

The downward path is already visible in recent figures. Aid fell to 0.44% of national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, a drop of £987 million. The researchers have urged ministers to consider adding funds for aid in this week's Budget. Whether ministers act will be clearer when the Budget is delivered on Wednesday.