The UK is on course to miss its target for spending on international aid by an estimated £400m by the end of 2027, according to analysis by the Center for Global Development (CGD) reported by The Guardian on 26 October 2026. The target is set as a share of gross national income, and stands at 0.3%.

What the numbers show

The CGD's central forecast, based on Treasury comparisons, implies UK aid would come in £410m below what was anticipated, at only 0.29% of national income. The centre said it was very plausible that the shortfall would reach £580m, bringing aid to 0.28% of national income. Even the most conservative forecast it considered implies a shortfall of £250m.

Why the gap opened

The CGD attributed the gap to two factors: inflation higher than expected, which pushed national income above the forecast made at the spending review, and a 2025 policy change affecting the budget of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the department that manages most of the UK's aid. The centre also called the 0.3% target for 2027 a 25-year low.

The downward path so far

Prime Minister Keir Starmer downgraded the aid target to boost defence spending, announcing in February 2025 that official development assistance would fall from 0.5% to 0.3% of national income in 2027, well below the 0.7% Labour promised in its election manifesto. Aid fell to 0.44% of national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, a drop of £987m.

What researchers want from the Budget

CGD senior fellow Ian Mitchell described the projected shortfalls as material reductions in the spending power of UK aid, and argued that even an additional £400m could halve planned cuts to Africa. Former minister Fleur Anderson said the government should at least meet the lower target it set itself.