The United States publishes its October 2026 consumer price index, or CPI, on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 8.30am Eastern Time, and this release is unusual: it will contain no annual inflation rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics never collected prices in October 2025, during the government shutdown that year, so there is nothing to compare October 2026 against. This explainer sets out what CPI is, what the October report will and will not show, what economists expect, and why markets are watching it so closely.

In short, the report will give the monthly change in prices only. The annual rate, the figure most people look for first, is missing for one month only and returns with the November report on 10 December.

What is the Consumer Price Index?

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. That is the definition used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States agency that compiles and publishes the index each month.

The basket covers the everyday spending of urban households: housing, food, energy, transport, medical care, clothing, recreation and other goods and services. Price collectors gather prices for thousands of items across the country, and the bureau combines them into a single index, with separate indexes for the United States as a whole and for various geographic areas. Average price data for selected utility, automotive fuel and food items are also published.

Two versions of the index matter most. Headline CPI covers everything in the basket. Core CPI covers everything except food and energy, the two categories whose prices swing most sharply from month to month. Economists and the Federal Reserve watch core CPI closely because it gives a clearer read on underlying price pressures, even though households feel the full headline figure at the shops and the petrol pump.

When is the October 2026 CPI report released?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has scheduled the Consumer Price Index for October 2026 for release on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 8.30am Eastern Time. With United States clocks having gone back on 1 November, that is 1.30pm in London and 1.30pm UTC. It is the last CPI report the Federal Reserve will see before its next decision on interest rates, at its meeting on 8 and 9 December. The November report is not due until 10 December, the day after the Federal Reserve announces its decision.

• Release: Consumer Price Index for October 2026, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Date and time: Tuesday 10 November 2026, 8.30am Eastern Time, 1.30pm in London.
• Monthly change: published as usual, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted.
• Annual change: not published for headline or core CPI, because October 2025 prices were never collected.
• Last annual rate: September 2026, up 3.7 per cent over the year, published on 14 October.
• Next annual rate: November 2026, due on 10 December.

Why is there no annual inflation rate this time?

The annual inflation rate compares prices in one month with prices in the same month a year earlier. For October 2026, that comparison needs the October 2025 index. That index does not exist.

The United States government was shut down from 1 October to 12 November 2025. During that period the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not collect CPI prices, and it was unable to go back and collect them afterwards. It never issued an October 2025 CPI release, and its data file shows a dash for that month, footnoted that data were unavailable because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations. Price collection resumed on 14 November 2025, so November 2025 does have an index, which is why the annual rate returns with the November 2026 report.

The bureau's shutdown guidance states the consequence plainly: it will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where the October 2025 data are not available. That covers headline CPI and core CPI, the two figures most people watch. The monthly changes are unaffected and will be published as usual, because they only need September 2026 and October 2026 prices, both of which were collected normally.

This is a one-month gap, not a change in how inflation is measured. The September report carried the last annual rate, and the December report will carry the next one.

What did the September report show?

The September 2026 report, published on 14 October, showed the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rising 0.6 per cent in the month on a seasonally adjusted basis, and 3.7 per cent over the year. The index for all items less food and energy, the core measure, rose 0.3 per cent in the month and 2.6 per cent over the year. Petrol prices rose in September, according to the bureau's summary of the release.

Those figures are the latest official annual inflation rates available, and they will remain the latest until the November report arrives on 10 December. Anyone quoting an annual United States inflation rate between now and then is quoting September's 3.7 per cent, not a fresh figure.

What are economists expecting for October?

Forecasts for the October monthly change cluster around a modest rise. The Dow Jones consensus forecast calls for headline CPI up 0.3 per cent on the month and core CPI up 0.2 per cent. The Cleveland Federal Reserve's nowcast, a running estimate published ahead of the official figure, put the October rise at 0.24 per cent for headline prices and 0.21 per cent for core prices as of 6 November.

A monthly rise of around 0.3 per cent would be a cooling from September's 0.6 per cent, but it would still leave inflation running well above the Federal Reserve's 2 per cent goal on an annual basis. That is why the monthly figure matters even without the annual rate beside it: a run of monthly rises near 0.3 per cent implies annual inflation of roughly 3.5 per cent or so, while a run near 0.2 per cent implies something closer to 2.5 per cent.

Forecasts are not facts, and the actual release can surprise in either direction. The value of the forecasts is that they set the bar against which the real number is judged: a monthly rise well above 0.3 per cent would be read as hotter than expected, and a rise well below it as cooler.

Headline CPI versus core CPI: what is the difference?

Headline CPI measures the price of everything in the basket, including food and energy. It is the figure that best matches what households actually pay, and it is the one usually quoted as "the inflation rate". Core CPI strips out food and energy, because those prices are driven by harvests, weather, wars and oil markets as much as by the wider economy, and they can jump or fall sharply in a single month.

Neither measure is the "real" inflation rate. Headline CPI tells you what prices did; core CPI tells you what the underlying trend looks like once the most volatile items are set aside. Central bankers lean on core CPI when they judge whether inflation is sustainably heading back towards target, but households are right to care about the headline figure, because food and fuel are real spending.

In October, both measures will be published as monthly changes only. Neither will carry a 12-month change, for the same reason: the October 2025 comparison point is missing for both.

Why does the CPI report move markets?

The CPI report is one of the most market-sensitive releases in the United States economic calendar, for three reasons. First, it shapes expectations for interest rates. The Federal Reserve aims for inflation of 2 per cent over time, and a CPI report that comes in hotter than expected makes traders think rates will stay higher for longer, while a cooler report makes rate cuts look more likely. Bond yields, share prices, mortgage rates and the dollar all move on that judgement.

Second, it feeds directly into real incomes and real returns. Wages, pensions, benefits and many contracts are adjusted using CPI, and investors use it to judge whether their returns are beating inflation. Third, it arrives monthly and on a fixed schedule, so it is the freshest official read on price pressures available to the Federal Reserve before each meeting.

This release carries extra weight because it is the last CPI report before the Federal Reserve's 8 to 9 December meeting, and the November report does not arrive until the day after that decision. Whatever the October number says, it is the final piece of inflation evidence the committee will have when it votes.

How to read the October release

Start with the monthly change, seasonally adjusted, for headline and core CPI. That is the only new inflation figure this report contains. Compare it with the consensus forecast of about 0.3 per cent headline and 0.2 per cent core, and with September's 0.6 per cent headline and 0.3 per cent core.

Do not look for a 12-month rate in this release: it will not be there, and its absence is not an error or a delay. The tables will show a dash where the annual change would normally sit. Look instead at which categories drove the monthly move. In September, petrol was a major driver; in October, the bureau's breakdown will show whether shelter, food, energy or services did the work.

Remember also that the index is revised only rarely and that the seasonally adjusted monthly change is the figure markets react to first. The unadjusted figures matter too, particularly for anyone tracking the actual level of prices, but the seasonally adjusted monthly change is the headline number on the day.

What happens next?

After the October report, the next milestone is the Federal Reserve's meeting on 8 and 9 December, at which it will decide on interest rates without a fresh CPI reading beyond October's. The November CPI report follows on 10 December, and that release will restore the annual inflation rate, comparing November 2026 prices with November 2025 prices, which were collected normally.

For anyone following United States inflation, the practical consequence of the October gap is a two-month wait between annual rates: September's 3.7 per cent, published on 14 October, and November's figure, published on 10 December. In between, the monthly changes are the only guide, and the October monthly change, published today, is the most important of them.

Frequently asked questions

When is the October 2026 CPI report released? At 8.30am Eastern Time on Tuesday 10 November 2026, which is 1.30pm in London. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes it on its official release schedule.

Why is there no annual inflation rate in the October report? Because prices were not collected in October 2025, during the government shutdown that year, so there is no October 2025 index to compare October 2026 against. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has said it will not publish 12-month changes where the comparison data are missing.

What is core CPI? Core CPI is the Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy. It is watched as a guide to underlying inflation, because food and energy prices move sharply for reasons unrelated to the wider economy.

What is the latest annual inflation rate? September 2026, up 3.7 per cent over the year for headline CPI and 2.6 per cent for core CPI. That remains the latest annual rate until the November report on 10 December.

When does the annual inflation rate return? On 10 December 2026, with the November CPI report. November 2025 prices were collected normally after the shutdown ended, so the comparison is possible again.

Why does CPI matter for interest rates? The Federal Reserve aims for inflation of 2 per cent over time. CPI is the freshest official measure of price pressures it sees before each meeting, and a hotter or cooler reading shifts expectations for whether rates rise, fall or stay where they are.