Currency and bond markets face a week of rate tests, with US inflation data on Tuesday and UK growth figures on Thursday at the centre of the calendar. Investors will be watching both for clues on whether central banks raise interest rates again in December.

US consumer-price inflation for October is due on Tuesday. Alongside producer-price figures on Friday and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers, it will be closely watched as investors gauge the likelihood of another interest-rate rise in December. More evidence of elevated inflation would make a rise on 9 December look likely, especially after the recent strong October jobs figures. US money markets currently price a 75 per cent probability of another quarter-point Fed increase next month, according to LSEG data.

Analysts at ING expect both headline and core US CPI to rise by 0.3 per cent month on month, strong enough to leave a December rise looking likely. Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex, said that barring a major downside surprise in Tuesday's CPI release, or in the November jobs report on 4 December, a 25 basis-point rise should be near fully priced by the time the committee meets next month. Bond markets will be closed on Wednesday for Veterans Day, although stock markets will be open.

The UK test comes on Thursday, when third-quarter gross domestic product figures are released. The data arrive a week after the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0 per cent, by a vote of eight to one, with committee member Catherine Mann voting for a larger 50 basis-point rise. The Bank said recent economic activity data had generally been stronger than expected, adding to the case for modestly tighter monetary policy.

The Bank's November report expects growth of 0.7 per cent in the third quarter, so Thursday's figures check the Bank's own forecast eight days after it raised rates on the strength of it. Investec economist Sandra Horsfield noted that UK monthly GDP had beaten consensus forecasts for four months running, although she expects September to reveal a more subdued picture. September industrial production and trade figures are also released on Thursday, and a number of Bank policymakers are due to speak during the week, including Governor Andrew Bailey on Monday evening.

Sterling finished last week almost exactly where it started, despite the rate rise. The pound closed on Friday at $1.3385 against the dollar and 1.1988 against the euro, moves of just 0.10 per cent and 0.04 per cent over the week. Forecasts for this week put sterling between $1.3250 and $1.3550 against the dollar, and between 1.1875 and 1.2100 against the euro.

In the eurozone, the flash estimate of third-quarter GDP will be released on Friday and will be the main focus in an otherwise quiet week for data. Other releases include German September trade figures on Monday, final October inflation data from Germany on Wednesday and France on Friday, and speeches from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday and Thursday.

In Asia, China's October consumer and producer prices are due on Monday, with ING expecting CPI to edge down to 0.8 per cent on the year and PPI to rise again to 5.3 per cent. Attention turns to China's October trade figures on Tuesday. Markets will also watch the People's Bank of China, which has moved to slow the pace of the yuan's appreciation. In Japan, a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's October meeting is due on Tuesday, and policy board member Toichiro Asada speaks on Thursday.

Elsewhere, the minutes of the Bank of Canada's most recent meeting, when it raised its key rate by a quarter point to 2.5 per cent, will be released on Tuesday, with money markets pricing a 37 per cent chance of a December rise. India's October consumer prices, due on Thursday, could reinforce expectations of another rate increase, with DBS expecting headline inflation to rise to 6.0 per cent from 5.5 per cent in September.

With a scheduled decision left from each major central bank this year, in December, this week's inflation and growth readings will shape how much tightening markets expect from each of them.