US stock futures were little changed in early trading on Tuesday after Wall Street posted its strongest day since April, with investors holding their nerve ahead of the October inflation report due later in the day.

S&P 500 futures stood at 7,579.50, up 0.07%, and Nasdaq 100 futures at 28,062.50, up 0.17%, in intraday readings taken at 5:52pm CT on Monday, according to Yahoo Finance data. The readings are from the overnight futures session, not a closed market, and can move sharply before the New York open.

The calm follows a powerful rebound on Monday 9 November. The S&P 500 closed 2.35% higher at 7,549.94, adding 173.08 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,104.02 points, or 2.15%, to 52,389.75, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.74% to 25,253.14. The Associated Press described Monday as Wall Street's best session since April.

Oil slide powered the rebound

Falling oil prices did much of the heavy lifting. Brent crude futures were hovering near their lowest levels since early September, last down 1% at $91.56 a barrel, as investors bet on possible talks between the United States and Iran, Reuters reported. Cheaper oil eased worries about inflation and interest rates, and chip stocks rebounded from last week's rout.

Gold futures also moved higher in the overnight session, up 0.83% at $4,148.60 at the same 5:52pm CT reading, a sign that some traders were still hedging ahead of the inflation data.

All eyes on October CPI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October consumer price index data at 8:30am ET on Tuesday 10 November. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect headline prices to have risen 0.3% month on month, down from 0.6% in September, and core prices, which strip out food and energy, to have risen 0.2%, against 0.3% previously.

There is an unusual wrinkle in this release. Because October 2025 CPI data were largely unavailable after the federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish October 2026 year-on-year changes for most series. Traders will therefore focus on the monthly figures and on the details, especially shelter and core services, which have kept underlying inflation stubborn.

December hike odds near 80%

The inflation print is the last big test before the Federal Reserve's December meeting. The central bank raised its policy range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September and left rates unchanged in October. After Friday's stronger jobs report, which showed 165,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.1%, futures markets were pricing roughly an 80% probability of another quarter-point increase in December, according to CME FedWatch.

A hotter-than-expected CPI reading would reinforce those bets and could stall the rally. A softer print would give traders room to argue that the worst of the tightening is behind them. September's figures set a high bar: headline inflation ran at 3.7% year on year and core at 2.6%, with petrol prices jumping 9.1% in the month and accounting for more than half of the rise.

Also due on Tuesday are September job openings data at 10:00am ET, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks after the CPI release, the first market-moving comments from a Fed governor since the jobs report. CoreWeave, the cloud computing provider at the heart of the AI data-centre buildout, reports earnings after the closing bell.

For now, the market's next move rests on one number. Monday's rally showed how quickly sentiment can turn when oil falls; Tuesday's inflation data will show whether that optimism survives contact with the figures.