International visitor arrivals to the United States fell by 5.5 percent in 2025, to about 68.3 million, according to figures analysed by the Congressional Research Service, in the first annual decline since 2020. The fall was driven by a sharp drop in Canadian visitors, while arrivals from Mexico rose.

The figures, reported on 7 November, show arrivals down from about 72.3 million in 2024. The total reached only 86 percent of the pre-pandemic level recorded in 2019, and remained well short of the record 79.4 million visitors seen in 2018.

Canada accounted for the biggest change. Canadian arrivals fell by about 20.9 percent to around 16 million visitors, one of the sharpest reductions among major source markets. Mexico moved in the opposite direction, with arrivals rising by about 6.4 percent to 18 million, underlining how uneven the downturn was across the United States' neighbours.

Overseas arrivals, excluding Canada and Mexico, totalled 34.3 million for the year, a decline of 2.5 percent on 2024, according to the US National Travel and Tourism Office. The Congressional Research Service report identified immigration enforcement, entry restrictions, visa application costs and procedural changes among the developments relevant to the tourism industry, but did not establish a single explanation for the weaker demand.

The latest available figures suggest the recovery remained uneven into 2026. Arrivals in the first six months of the year were about 0.4 percent below the same period in 2025, while July recorded 6,248,242 international arrivals, a marginal annual decline of 0.1 percent. Canadian arrivals rose by about 7.6 percent in July and Mexican arrivals by about 8 percent, but overseas arrivals fell by about 7 percent.

The contrast with Mexico was underlined by World Travel and Tourism Council figures, which put Mexico's international arrivals up 6.1 percent in 2025, with visitor spending up 3.5 percent, while visitor spending in the United States fell 4.6 percent. Canada's arrivals slipped 0.6 percent and its visitor spending fell 3.5 percent. The figures show the downturn was not a region-wide pattern, but one concentrated in travel to the United States.

The US National Travel and Tourism Office has forecast about 70.5 million international arrivals in 2026, growth of 3.2 percent on 2025, with arrivals potentially rising to about 85.2 million by 2030. The tourism industry will be watching whether the modest improvement in Canadian travel seen in July develops into a sustained recovery, or whether the weakness in overseas demand continues to hold back the overall total.