The United States has warned several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections on 3 November, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday 28 October, citing people briefed on the conversations. The warnings were sent through diplomatic and military channels, according to the report, and are among growing signs that the US and Israel are preparing a new round of heavy combat operations aimed at weakening Tehran and pushing it towards negotiations. President Donald Trump has not decided to go ahead, the Journal reported, but is leaning towards a large post-election attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites.

Build-up described in the report

The Journal reported that the US military is sending an additional Patriot missile defence system from Texas to Israel, based on flight-tracking data and two officials with knowledge of the movement. US forces in the region have also been restocking munitions, while bomber aircraft and jet fighters are preparing for strikes, some officials said. The report presents these moves as preparation, not as confirmation that strikes will take place.

Cost and diplomatic backdrop

The war is now in its eighth month. A US Central Command estimate reported by the Journal puts the cost of the Iran war at $47.1 billion as of mid-October with about $29 billion — roughly 60 per cent — attributed to munitions such as Tomahawk and Patriot missiles. Reuters' Morning Bid on the same day separately noted reports that the US is considering resuming attacks on Iran after next week's midterms, consistent with the timing in the Journal's account, though it does not independently confirm the Journal's sourcing.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal and Middle East Eye, reporting the WSJ report and Reuters Morning Bid.