Vietnam is set to overtake Indonesia in GDP per capita for the first time, according to forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, in a symbolic shift in Southeast Asia's economic rankings. The IMF's October World Economic Outlook puts Vietnam's nominal GDP per capita at $5,259 in 2026, up 8.9 percent on the year, ahead of Indonesia's projected $5,153.

The crossover reverses a gap that favoured Indonesia by roughly $250 per person in 2025, when Vietnam stood at $4,829 against Indonesia's $5,078. The projected lead of about $106 per person, or 2.1 percent, lifts Vietnam to fifth place among ASEAN members on the measure, behind Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand. The IMF's April outlook had still placed Indonesia ahead in 2026.

The change reflects Vietnam's rapid growth rather than any shrinkage in Indonesia. Vietnam's economy grew 9.95 percent year on year in the third quarter and 9.01 percent over the first nine months of 2026, according to the National Statistics Office, driven by high-tech manufacturing, electronics assembly and exports. The IMF expects Vietnam to hold a narrow lead through 2027, at $5,659 against Indonesia's $5,550.

Indonesia remains by far the region's largest economy in total size, with the IMF projecting its GDP at about $1.48 trillion in 2026 against roughly $542 billion for Vietnam, and a population of around 280 million compared with Vietnam's roughly 100 million. Vietnam now aims to raise GDP per capita to about $8,500 by 2030, roughly Thailand's current level, with Thailand the next target in the rankings. Read the full IMF-based report at StockBiz.