Analysts have raised their view of oil prices for 2026, pushing the expected average for Brent crude above $90 a barrel for the first time since May. A survey of 32 economists and analysts conducted during October put the 2026 Brent average at $92.88 a barrel, up from $89.05 in the previous month's survey. The forecast for US West Texas Intermediate also rose, to $86.60 a barrel from $83.90.

The change reflects a judgement that disruption to energy flows from the Middle East will not clear quickly. Brent had climbed as high as $126.41 a barrel in April after the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February, and shipping through the region has remained unsettled since.

Why analysts see a slower recovery

UniCredit analyst Tobias Keller pointed to constrained Middle East flows, exceptionally tight refined-product markets and depleted inventories, arguing that a full return to pre-war production, trade routes and shipping conditions will take longer than previously hoped, leaving risks tilted to higher prices. HSBC's head of European oil and gas research, Kim Fustier, noted that Hormuz liquids flows had recovered to around 10 million barrels a day, helping to cap prices, but said the physical market stayed abnormally tight because of steep backwardation, wide crude differentials and record shipping costs.

Demand hit still weighing on the outlook

The disruption has also dented demand. HSBC estimated it removed around 5 million barrels a day of demand in the second quarter, concentrated in lower-income countries. On average, the poll showed 2026 demand falling by 2.5 million barrels a day, before growth of about 2.2 million barrels a day in 2027. The poll also forecast an oil market deficit of around 2.7 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2026. Members of seven core OPEC+ countries were set to meet online on Sunday, with expectations that they would keep December output targets steady.

Sources: Reuters; BigGo Finance (Reuters poll report).