A fall in gold below $4,000 an ounce looks to many investors like proof that the bull market is finished. Research firm CPM Group reads it differently, arguing that gold and silver are probably within three to four trading days of a low, with gold near $3,959 and silver near $50. Silver has fallen about 17.7% from its $60.82 high, while gold has dropped roughly 14–16% from a late-summer peak of about $4,600–$4,700.

The $4,000 level had served as a test point in June, July and again in recent days. On 30 October, Kitco put spot gold at about $3,958.80, while Reuters recorded an intraday low of $3,980.40, and December Comex futures touched $3,971. The figures differ because spot and futures are different instruments quoted at different times, not because one source is wrong. Kitco described silver at about $50.08 as the year's low.

Inflation data keeps pressure on gold

Gold's latest leg lower followed stronger US inflation data. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the overall PCE price index rose 3.6% year on year in September, up from 3.4% in August, and 0.5% month on month, above the previous reading of 0.3% and the largest monthly gain in six months. Earlier on Thursday, gold had dropped 1.1%, approaching $4,000, before breaking below it in Friday's Asian session to a low of $3,986.70.

The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates by the end of the year. The Fed had held its target range at 3.75%–4.00% at its meeting on 28 October, while the market-implied probability of a December rate hike stood at around 74.9%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Why CPM sees rates as a weaker headwind

CPM's argument is that interest rates are a weaker headwind for gold than the market currently assumes, and that the scale of the recent sell-off has brought prices close to support. Its call would be undermined if gold were to break decisively lower and hold below that support zone, rather than stabilising near it. For now, the firm frames the move as a sharp correction inside a longer uptrend, not a verdict on gold's future — a distinction that matters for investors deciding whether the recent drop is a warning or an entry point.

Sources: Discovery Alert (CPM Group analysis); Mitrade / TradingKey.