Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled at $117.64 a barrel on 30 October, a rise of 13.63% across October and its fourth consecutive monthly gain. The front-month contract gained $14.11 during the month and finished just below its 52-week high of $118.35, recorded on 31 March 2026. United States benchmark West Texas Intermediate also finished above $104 a barrel, with October gains of around 15%.

Hormuz fears drive the rally

The latest leg of the rally has been driven by the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway carrying a large share of the world's seaborne oil. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that three tankers exploded along a southern maritime route and that a fourth vessel struck a mine, declaring the route a no-go zone. United States Central Command dismissed the mine-attack claims as unfounded and said its forces had cleared key shipping lanes of mines. The two accounts conflict, and the full extent of any supply disruption is not yet established.

Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations office reported that a tanker operating in the strait had been attacked with an explosive device attached to its hull, adding to supply worries.

What comes next for prices

Washington moved to steady supply by signing contracts for about 41 million barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude on 30 October. Analysts remain divided on how far prices ease from here: UBS has raised its end-December Brent forecast to $110 a barrel, from $100, arguing that recovering Gulf exports have not yet made oil cheap or dependable to transport, with large-tanker freight from the Middle East to China still put at $30-40 a barrel against $1-3 before the conflict. For households and hauliers, the message is that fuel costs are unlikely to fall quickly even if diplomacy advances.