Traders hold their most bearish bet against the euro in more than a decade, even as the single currency has held its ground, according to the latest US futures positioning data. Non-commercial traders deepened their net short position in the euro to almost 158,000 contracts in the week to 3 November, the largest since January 2016, figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Gross short positions stand at record highs.

The build-up sits oddly against the currency's own moves. EUR/USD traded above 1.1200 during the same period, leaving price and positioning pulling in opposite directions. Analysts at Forex.com note that bears are now watching the May low near 1.1074, while warning that crowded shorts leave room for a sharp squeeze if the dollar's rally fades.

Sterling told a different story. Speculative net shorts in the pound fell to multi-week lows of about 59,800 contracts as traders covered bearish bets, and GBP/USD pushed above 1.3400 during the week. The move came ahead of the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates, but sterling then reversed sharply lower after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report sent the dollar higher.

The dollar itself remains the anchor of the trade. Net long positions in the greenback fell by $1.8 billion for a third week yet stayed elevated at $35.6 billion, and the dollar index climbed back above 102 after the payrolls data. Gold exposure also retreated as prices fell again, while the Canadian dollar's net short shrank to its smallest since mid-September.