Labour leads Reform UK by nine points in a new BMG Research poll for The i Paper, putting the party on 31% against 22% for Reform and 21% for the Conservatives. The survey, based on interviews with 1,529 adults on 28 and 29 October, was published on 1 November.

What the BMG poll found

The poll puts the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats on 8% each, followed by Restore Britain on 5%, the Scottish National Party on 2% and Plaid Cymru on 1%, with other parties on 2%. That gives Labour a nine-point lead over Reform UK and a ten-point lead over the Conservatives. BMG recorded Labour up three points on its previous poll, with Reform down one and the Conservatives up one, according to QNC News and the PolitPro poll record.

How other polls compare

Other surveys from the same week showed a narrower Labour lead. A Find Out Now poll, also conducted on 28 and 29 October with 2,514 respondents, put Labour on 28%, the Conservatives on 21% and Reform on 20%. A More in Common survey, based on fieldwork between 23 and 26 October, put Labour on 28%, the Conservatives on 24% and Reform on 23%. Election Maps UK noted that the BMG nine-point lead was Labour's largest with any pollster since September 2024.

Why polls are snapshots, not forecasts

No general election is due in Britain until 2029, so the figures are best read as a measure of the current public mood rather than a forecast of the next parliament. The BMG survey was also conducted before the latest political developments of the weekend, and pollsters caution that voting intention figures can move quickly in response to events. Under first past the post, national vote shares do not translate directly into seats, so no seat projection is claimed here.