Oil and gold are moving in opposite directions, and by a wider margin than usual. Brent crude fell 17.03% over five sessions to $97.61 a barrel, while gold rose 4.16% over the same window to $4,060.90 an ounce, according to analysis published on 6 November. Brent later settled on Friday at $98.32, with US benchmark WTI at $90.83.

The split is striking because the two markets have often drifted in the same direction. The 20-session correlation between Brent and gold has flipped from -0.11 to -0.64, meaning the two now move against each other far more strongly than they did a month ago.

The proximate driver for oil is diplomacy. An Iranian source told Al Arabiya on 6 November that Tehran was "engaging positively" with a mediator proposal on the nuclear file, after a report in the New York Times on 5 November that Iran was reviewing "concrete proposals". With hopes of de-escalation rising, the war premium built up during October, when Brent peaked near $115.81 on 26 October, has drained fast.

Gold, meanwhile, has found support from a different set of forces. A strong US jobs report has lifted expectations of a further Federal Reserve rate rise in December, while safe-haven demand has stayed firm. Bullion rebounded from midweek lows near $3,919 and was trading around $4,072 on Sunday.

Positioning data suggests the oil slide may not be over. Managed-money traders in WTI were still net long at the 96.8th percentile of their three-year range in the Commitments of Traders report covering the week to 27 October, despite cutting 4,481 contracts. The next report, due on 10 November, will show how much of that crowded position has now been unwound.