Corporate America is still beating Wall Street forecasts, but only just. New FactSet data shows S&P 500 companies reporting third-quarter results are coming in a mere 2.7% above analysts’ estimates, the narrowest average beat in almost four years.

The figure sits well below the five-year average surprise of 7.5% and the ten-year average of 8.0%. If it holds once every company has reported, it would be the smallest earnings surprise since the fourth quarter of 2022, when the beat was just 1.3%, according to FactSet’s update published on 6 November.

The headline beat rate still looks healthy. So far 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and 84% of them have topped earnings-per-share estimates, above the five-year average of 78%. Revenues tell a similar story: 74% of companies beat sales forecasts, with aggregate revenue 2.1% above estimates, ahead of the five-year average of 1.8%.

Analysts still expect strong growth ahead, calling for fourth-quarter earnings growth of 28.4% and full-year 2026 growth of 33.3%. The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 17.7, below its five-year average of 19.8.

The findings landed after technology shares suffered their worst day since 2020 on Thursday, as investors worried about the future of artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. More results are due in the week ahead, including Cisco Systems and CoreWeave.