SpaceX shares now trade more cheaply than the S&P 500 on 2028 earnings, according to Morgan Stanley, even after the bank nearly doubled its forecasts.

Analyst Adam Jonas laid out the shift in a 3 November note, "SPCX Getting Even Cheaper". He raised his 2027 revenue forecast 93 percent to $175 billion and his 2028 forecast 84 percent to $289 billion. He now expects positive free cash flow by 2031, four years earlier than the 2035 he expected in July, and cut projected borrowing to $390 billion through 2031, from $670 billion through 2035, while keeping an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. At projected 2028 adjusted earnings of $109 billion and a market value of about $1.91 trillion, SpaceX would trade at 17.6 times earnings, against 17.7 times for the S&P 500. Third-quarter revenue rose 161 percent to $14.6 billion, with $4.4 billion of profit — its first profitable quarter since its June listing.

Heavy spending weighs on the shares The shares have not followed: SpaceX closed at $134.27 on Friday 6 November, about 40 percent below the $225.64 peak touched five days after its June debut, and barely above its $135 IPO price. Capital spending is the counterweight: SpaceX spent $19.6 billion in the third quarter, more than its revenue, and expects another $35 billion to $40 billion in the fourth quarter.

More shares are coming Another wave of newly tradable stock looms in early December, with up to 797.6 million shares set to come free — about 17 percent of the company. That follows an October unlock that freed more than $180 billion of stock, including 1.3 billion shares released on 22 October, a day the shares fell 9 percent. The near-term catalyst Jonas flagged is Starship Flight 15, expected this month, which will attempt to catch both the booster and the ship.

[Source: thestreet.com](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/morgan-stanley-says-spacex-stock-is-now-cheaper-than-the-sp-500) | [Source: finance.biggo.com](https://finance.biggo.com/news/fbc49dba-027e-4529-9133-c2c71a4102fc)